Guts v. Numbers: The beginning

I think this week will actually be the start of the season for the two of us. Apparently "Nums" thought it would be best to cheat and wait til he actually had data for the system while I threw myself headlong into the fire picking games drunk 10 minutes before kickoff and completely disregarding my real picks. I assure you I would not have picked oakland under any other circumstance.

With that said, here are this week's Gut picks. All games will be picked against the spread only.

With a week in the books I think we all have a little idea of how this season will shape up. No Tom Brady & Vince Young is a fucking weirdo.

New Orleans (1-0) v. Washington (0-1)

Spread: New Orleans -2: New Orleans 24-13
Washington was the team I couldn't figure out. After week 1 I've gotten an idea and it isn't looking good. New Orleans had a tough game against Tampa, but Tampa's a tough team. They should play a little harder since Colston's out. Bush needs to step up again.

New York (G) (0-1) @ St. Louis (0-1)

Spread: New York (G) -6: New York 30-21
The rams should score a little more than they did against philly last week but they won't give up any less.

Green Bay (1-0) @ Detroit (0-1)

Spread: Green Bay -3: Green Bay 27-17
Green Bay looked good against highly touted Minnesota and they're disgusting running game. Detroit looked bad against Atlanta.


Indianapolis (0-1) @ Minnesota (0-1)

spread: Indy -2: Indianapolis 30-28
Tough first two games for Minnesota. I think they'll play well but they really have a tough time defending against the pass (28th) a year ago and seeing Indianapolis after a disappointing week 1 loss is not what this team needs. It'll be close, but Indianapolis should cover.

Tennessee (1-0) @ Cincinnati (0-1)

Spread: Cincy -3: Cincinnati 20-10
I'm not sure that anyone is sure of what is going on in Tennessee. While I love Kerry Collins as a person and respect his ability to somehow win as a starting quarterback I cannot endorse this team. The Bengals were god awful against Joe Flacco last week, and on offense..... wow. But, I'll give them the edge at home.

Buffalo (1-0) @ Jacksonville (0-1)

Spread: Jax -5.5: Buffalo 27-24
While it's hard for me to pick against a Jacksonville team that I expected more out of early, I'm going to have to. I'm not picking the Bills to win outright but don't be surprised if they do. They're looking more and more like a complete team. Trent Edwards didn't make any mistakes against Seattle, Marshawn Lynch is a stud in the making and they have a legitimate playmaker in Roscoe Parrish. In a now wide-open AFC East, Buffalo is a contender.

Oakland (0-1) @ Kansas City (0-1)

Spread: KC -3: KC 21-18
This game sucks. As a Raiders fan, I can say that. Who cares.

Chicago (1-0) @ Carolina (1-0)

Spread: Carolina -3: Chicago 17-10
This was a tough game to wrap my mind around. The Bears looked great on sunday night against the colts. The defense was tough and forced turnovers and rookie Matt Forte out of Tulane busted off 100+. Carolina shocked the bolts in San Diego. Which is weirder? I'm going with Carolina's win. That's why I'm picking chicago to win this week.

Atlanta (1-0) @ Tampa Bay (0-1)

Spread: Tampa Bay -8: Atlanta 21-20
Absolutely horrible spread. Atlanta is better than EVERYONE expected. I know it's been one week and it was against Detroit but they played like a team should play against Detroit. Michael Turner is no longer backup #1 in the NFL, he is #1 (at least for a week) in rushing. Matt Ryan (fuck boston college) may actually be okay as a rookie starting quarterback. All things considered though, this is not Detroit's defense. This is Tampa Bay and even though they made a crucial mistake in benching Jeff Garcia, they should win. But Atlanta will beat this spread.

San Francisco (0-1) @ Seattle (0-1)

Spread: Seattle -9.5: San Francisco 27-20
I like Seattle to win at home, but for San Francisco to keep it close. Seattle will be without Nate Burleson and with an altogether sketchy running game and back-labored QB. San Francisco will be with hope and without a good team. Last O'something to win as a starting quarterback, Neil O'Donnell

Miami (0-1) @ Arizona (1-0)

Spread: Arizona -8: Arizona 28-20
I can say I never really foresaw the day I would pick AZ with a -8 spread confidently. They'll win big. Miami is much improved but not that improved.

San Diego (0-1) @ Denver (1-0)

Spread: San Diego -2.5: Denver 20-17
Denver looked like the best team in the NFL last week systematically dismantling the Oakland Raiders just like they were supposed to. San Diego lost to Carolina. San Diego will start 0-2 but they won't lose all that many more the rest of the season.

New England (1-0) @ New York (J) (1-0)

Spread: New York (J) -3: New England 31-21
That's right. Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre. Had enough yet? me too. Matt Cassel, just another in a long line of good looking new england quarterbacks will somewhat shock the world when he plays well and beats Brett Ironman Favre in New York.


Pittsburgh (1-0) @ Cleveland (0-1)

Spread: Pittsburgh -4: Pittsburgh 35-20
Pittsburgh is the most solid team in the NFL top to bottom. They're complete and they beat cleveland.

Philadelphia (1-0) @ Dallas (1-0)

Spread: Dallas -7.5: Philadephia 28-21
This is the game of the week. Both teams looked great last week and they'll have some fun this week. Whoever scores first wins.

Baltimore (1-0) @ Houston (1-0)

Spread: Houston -5: Baltimore 17-14
Houston will be much improved this week. Baltimore will slide under the spread but I don't see them winning this one.


Predicted Players of the Week:
Ben Roethlisberger
Larry Fitzgerald
Brandon Jacobs

Bad Performances of the Week:
Jake Delhomme
Clinton Portis
The Chiefs and The Raiders