Guts update: The show Guts! is basically back on Nickelodeon in the form of "My family has Guts" or some shit like that. No Mike O'Malley, No Moira Quirk, and I couldn't stand it long enough to see, but probably no Krag. All in all, a very un-gutsy return.
On to football. Here are the picks. They'll be subject to change as the line updates and injury reports are finalized.
Last week I went 9-6: Totals are 9-6 and 8-7 for Nums. For the record I used CBS Sportsline's posted lines.
A quick recap of my predictions for best and worst performances
Best:
Roethlisberger: 12/19 186 yds 1 TD: very ben-like day
Fitzgerald: 6 catches for 153 yards: That's a great day, but Boldin had all the TDs
Jacobs: 15 car. 93 yds: eh
Worst:
Delhomme: 12/21 128 yards 1 INT: right on
Portis: 21 carries 96 yards and 2 tds.. I was a little off
Chiefs and Raiders: Chiefs sucked hard.
WEEK 3:
Kansas City (0-2) @ Atlanta (1-1)
Spread: Atlanta -4.5: Atlanta 19-14
Kansas City, along with St. Louis, look like they are solidly one of the worst teams in the NFL. They gave up 300 rushing yards against Oakland and they really don't have a reliable player to throw the football. This week they play an Atlanta team who, with running back Michael Turner, compiled about 300 yards on the ground in week 1. I like Atlanta to minimize Matt Ryan's role and run the ball hard and often to cover.
Oakland (1-1) @ Buffalo (2-0)
Spread: BUF -8.5: Buffalo 20-10
Oakland busted me last week when they knocked Kansas City around. Buffalo is a better team than anyone expected. Week 1 they toppled Seattle, Week 2 Jacksonville, two teams who are perennially battling for Division titles and wild card spots. I think we are seeing the Bills climb into that category. They aren't a powerhouse, but they're contenders. They should do fine against the Raiders and move to 3-0.
Tampa Bay (1-1) @ Chicago (1-1)
Spread: Chicago -2.5: Tampa Bay 17-16
After shocking the Colts, the Bears struggled against Carolina. The Bears defense looks like they have signs of life and want to erase memory of a year ago. This will be a battle of the defenses. I'll take Tampa Bay to squeeze into the spread and call this for all intents and purposes, a push.
Carolina (2-0) @ Minnesota (0-2)
Spread: MN -3.5: Minnesota 21-14
Carolina shocked me the past two weeks. I pegged them as a thorough disappointment before the season started, but they're 2-0 and are just now getting their biggest weapon back in Steve Smith. However, they're running into a Viking team hurting for a victory and who just pressed the panic button by naming Gus Frerotte as the starter after two games. I see this as a good thing. He'll make less mistakes than Tarvaris. Having steve smith back might actually hurt the Panthers passing game which has featured Delhome spreading the ball out effectively.
Miami (0-2) @ New England (2-0)
Spread: NE -12.5: New England 31-17
I hate spreads this large. But it's Miami. New England proved they can win without Tom Brady as they handled the "highly-touted" (see: overrated) Jets last Sunday afternoon. They'll be a bit more comfortable in this one at home and we'll get to see Matt Cassel throw his first touchdown pass as the man in Foxboro, and his second, and a third.
Cincinnati (0-2) @ New York (G) (2-0)
Spread: NYG -12.5: NYG 35-21
I think Cincinnati will finally figure out what's wrong with their offense. It may happen when Carson Palmer is lying on his back staring up at the entire Giants defense, or maybe it'll happen when he finally connects with one of his own teammates.
Houston (0-1) @ Tennessee (2-0)
Spread: Tenn. -4.5: Houston 23-14
Houston is on two week's rest. Hurricane Ike pushed them out of a game this past Monday night, but they're back against a Tennessee team that well, keeps finding a way to win. I don't think they'll win this one. Houston won't be rusty, they'll be rested. This is an 8-8 team from a year ago in the tough AFC South in case you've forgotten and I think their passing attack will be clicking.
Arizona (2-0) @ Washington (1-1)
Spread: Wash. -2.5: Arizona 21-10
I don't just like Arizona to beat this spread, I like them to handle Washington. Arizona passed for 1,000,000 yards last week and they're defense is improved. Washington also passed for 1,000,000 yards last week against New Orleans. It won't be the shoot-out that you might want to see from two 1,000,000 yards passing offenses, but it'll be fun.
New Orleans (1-1) @ Denver (2-0)
Spread: Den. -4.5: Denver 28-22
Denver's offense has been absolutely explosive. They're defense suprisingly porous. New Orleans' offense has been mediocre and they're defense predictablty porous. Do the math.
Detroit (0-2) @ San Francisco (1-1)
Spread: San Francisco -3.5: Detroit 20-17
Detroit found themselves battling back against the Green Bay Packers last week only to throw the game away in desperation at the end. That comeback though bodes well for this identity-less team. They're one more bad decision away from total anonymity. But hey! they have talent. I think this week, the talent will shine through.
St. Louis (0-2) @ Seattle (0-2)
Spread: Seattle -9.5: Seattle 21-3
I know, picking a team struggling like Seattle to cover 9.5 points seems foolish, but i have no reason to pick the Rams in any game right now. show me something st. louis and then you'll have my respect. Ask the Giants.
Cleveland (0-2) @ Baltimore (1-0)
Spread: BAL -1.5: Cleveland 14-13
Call this one a toss-up. Cleveland played Pittsburgh tough last week and I think they'll knock off a Baltimore team that had some time to revel in their week 1 win. Cleveland made us all hope a little last year, and they'll start to come around. Better days ahead for Derek Andersen.
Jacksonville (0-2) @ Indianapolis (1-1)
Spread: Indianapolis -5.5: JAX 21-18
Jacksonville will be the most surprising defeated team after this week is over. I think it'll be a real close game as Jacksonville always plays indianapolis tough and Indy will win on another Vinatieri field goal. This is a weird year in the AFC. It'll just keep getting weirder. (Denver, I'm looking at you)
Pittsburgh (2-0) @ Philadelphia (1-1)
Spread: Philadelphia -2.5: Pittsburgh 30-28
This is all dependent on Ben Roethlisberger's shoulder so watch this game closely. If he's healthy, Pittsburgh will win. If he can't play, Philly will cover easily. I can't really do much by way of commentary. Pittsburgh, to me, is the most complete team in the NFL and Philadelphia is scary on both sides of the ball. They can win big and shut teams down that they need to and they can play with the best offenses in the league (see: Monday night barn burner) this game will be a good one. But, for now, I see philly losing another heart breaker.
Dallas (2-0) @ Green Bay (2-0)
Spread: Dallas -2.5: Dallas 27-24
Dallas is good, green bay is good. Game... good.
New York (j) (1-1) @ San Diego (0-2)
Spread: San Diego -8.5: New York (J) 27-19
New York will keep this close, but San Diego is so much better than they're playing. Don't be surprised if they win out. They just need to find themselves.
Best Performances of the Week:
Matt Schaub
LaDanian Tomlinson
Brandon Marshall
Worst Performances of the week:
Phillip Rivers
Jamal Lewis
Vernon Davis
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
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